CFP Pick 'Em the Night Before

#2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State

The Case for Ohio State:

Colin: Look I know that Deshaun Watson has been on fire in his last 3 games, but I don't think we'll be seeing that guy tomorrow against Ohio State. The Buckeye defense is a lot better than people give it credit for, and they have a good shot at limiting the Clemson offense.

Ohio State has a secondary capable of locking up Clemson's outside options. Gareon Conley is expected to matchup with Mike Williams and with help over the top, Mike Williams won't make a big statement on this game. My man crush on not just Mondays but everyday Malik Hooker is a big part of why Ohio State can keep Clemson in check in the passing game. Hooker has the speed to roam the middle in single high safety looks like this:

No it wasn't a bird or a plane, it was just Malik Hooker coming in hot like a like a bullet. Hooker is one of the best smartest safeties in college football and is able to read plays and break on them like this. With him over the top, The Buckeyes should have nothing to fear from the Clemson receivers, and he can even contribute to stop the run game.

Ohio State can keep Clemson out of the air, but they can also stop them on the ground as well. Ohio State has a good physical front seven led by Raekwon McMillan. Keeping Wayne Gallman from hurting them in the run game shouldn't be too hard with McMillan doing stuff like this:

McMillan is an explosive player, and he has the speed and strength to stuff Gallman in the run game. The real problem is Deshaun Watson though, and I'd expect to see McMillan as a spy on Watson as well as Ohio State's defensive ends to stay home and play contain on Deshaun Watson. Urban Meyer will want to keep Watson in the pocket and force Watson to beat The Buckeyes with his arm.

The real test will come on offense. Ohio States offensive line can match up with Clemson's front 7, but I don't know if they can block well enough in the run game. JT Barrett- I'm sorry, but you're not a good quarterback. I don't trust him beat Clemson with his arm.

But luckily that's not what he has going for him. JT Barrett is an electric runner, and is capable of making a big play with his legs:

If the Buckeyes can get Curtis Samuel going and mix in read option stuff with Barrett, they might just be able to score enough to win. I expect this to be a battle of defense's with the final score being- Clemson-13, Ohio State-17

The Case for Clemson:

Chase: For the life of me, I cannot understand why Ohio State is favored in this ballgame. We all know that the number one key to winning football games is the man under center, and Clemson has a clear advantage. While JT Barrett is a competent quarterback and respected leader, he simply is not capable of making the throws that Deshaun Watson can.

In the National Championship Game against Alabama last year, in the very same University of Phoenix Stadium that Clemson will do battle in tomorrow night, Watson casually made this throw into double coverage to Hunter Renfrow, who is just one of his many weapons. The ability to fit the ball into windows this tight is not something that you can take away without putting pressure on the quarterback, necessitating blitzes that take men out of covering the other playmakers Clemson possesses. This is a Catch-22 that the Buckeyes will face all night long.

Watson’s other receivers include guys like Deon Cain, Mike Williams, Artavious Scott, and Tight End Jordan Leggett, who made this otherworldly play earlier this season against Florida State to score the winning touchdown in a hostile road environment.

If that wasn’t intimidating enough, Clemson’s running back has a future on Sundays. Wayne Gallman is a beast both in between the tackles and in the open field, which is certainly evident in this play against Louisville from earlier in the season. Look here at how Gallman finds a hole that isn’t at first evident, and once he’s past the first line of defense, it’s over.

This Clemson offense is simply game-breaking, and I don’t really see an avenue with which Ohio State can stop it other than turnovers. While Watson has been interception-prone this season, he has made up for it with dazzling numbers against outstanding defenses, such as Auburn, Florida State, and Louisville. Malik Hooker and Raekwon MacMillan are two studs for the Ohio State defense, but the overall strength of that side of the ball has been drastically reduced by the tremendous exodus to the NFL that occurred in the offseason. It is a testament to Urban Meyer and the defensive staff that they’ve been as good as they’ve been this year, but the best offense they’ve faced is probably Oklahoma, which does not have the multitude of weapons that the Tigers have.

On the other side of the ball, Ohio State’s passing offense has been putrid of late, with JT Barrett throwing for less than 200 yards combined in his past two games, against Michigan and Michigan State. Michigan State went 3-9 this year, and yet they were able to get fairly consistent pressure on JT Barrett throughout the game.

Here, essentially the entire line capitulates. Again, this is in the face of a team that won 3 games.

Clemson, meanwhile, is a bit more stout. They have animals on the defensive line, including two future NFL defensive tackles on opposite ends of their Clemson careers, in RS Senior Carlos Watkins and Freshman Dexter Lawrence, who won the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year after being the #2 recruit in the country.

The Tigers rank #18 nationally in pass defense, thanks both to the aforementioned defensive line and also to the secondary, which features outstanding safety Jadar Johnson. Johnson has come under fire recently for his (correct) comment that JT Barrett wasn’t one of the best quarterbacks that the Tigers have faced this season, but you’ll hear his name tomorrow night because he is an absolute ballhawk.

Here against rival South Carolina he lulls the quarterback into believing that his wideout is open, before snatching the ball with his elite ball skills.

The Tigers defense doesn’t have to play perfectly, though, they simply have to force the Buckeyes to run, because a running offense cannot keep up with the Tigers’ dual-threat attack. Ultimately in games between two excellent teams, it can come down to which team has the best player on the field, and in this game, the best player on the field wears an orange jersey with #4 on the front and “Watson” on the back. Don’t sleep on the Heisman finalist’s ability to win the game by himself, if necessary. But it won’t be. Clemson-35, Ohio State-24.

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington

The Case for Alabama:

Colin: Alabama has the most dominant defense in all of college football without question. So why pick against them? I wrote a article a couple weeks ago stating Washington had a slim chance at an upset right? I said slim for a reason. Did you know that Nick Saban owns a 118-18 record since coming to Alabama? Thats ridiculous.

Alabama's defense gives me a hard on every time I watch any tape of it. The defensive line is the most captivating thing to watch about it. Jonathan Allen is a stud. He can up over guards or the center, and apply an absurd amount of pressure. He can do it on stunts, or just straight on situations. Watch this play against LSU:

Jonathan Allen is a load inside, and Washington's interior lineman won't be able to block him 1 on 1. They'll certainly be double teaming him, and that'll free up the second best player on The Tide's defensive line to 1 on 1 matchups- Tim Williams.

Look at that spin move. Williams is a great edge player, and has more moves in his arsenal than you'd expect for a college rusher. He has strength and quickness that allows him to overpower and bully tackles, and he should be doing this all day against Washington.

Remember how bad Wasington played against USC's front?Washington will have an even harder time moving the ball on Alabama. For how good their defensive line is in pass rushing situations, they're also outstanding against the run. With the line drawing most of the attention, it'll allow The Tide's linebacking core headed by Reuben Foster to contain Myles Gaskin and the run. If Washington can't run the ball and Jake Browning has to throw it more than 30 times, he'll have a tough day running away from this formidable front.

Alabama has had a prolific offense all season. They've scored at least 30 points in every game they've played except against LSU. And this is with a true freshman quarterback at the helm. That's more incredible than Bleacher Report still having Aaron Hernandez murder trial updates.

Washington has a stellar group in their secondary, but Alabama will be able to overpower them at the line of scrimmage and run the football down their throats.

Alabama was able to dominate a USC team that beat Washington at the line. I mean that is some pretty good push. I almost thought the Dallas Cowboys changed their color scheme to white and red there. Damien Harris is also a special back. He's a very good runner, and can hit those home runs. Alabama won't have to pass the ball to win.

Washington might have a great secondary, but don't forget about Calvin Ridley and Ardarius Stewart. Neither of those guys are slouches, and they both match up pretty well against Washington's shutdown duo- Kevin King and Sidney Jones.

I don't think this game will be very close. Alabama will completely shut down Washington's offense, and be able to dominate the time of possession on offense. The final score will be Washington-6, Alabama-27

The Case for Washington:

Chase: First of all, this is a confident Washington team that expects to be the team that dethrones Alabama. There are two types of teams that pull major upsets: the battle-tested, senior-laden, “been-here-before” types- think the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes that beat Miami in the National Championship Game. Then of course, there are the teams that don’t know enough to be scared of a juggernaut- typically young teams that haven’t faced a lot of elite competition- think Chris Petersen’s 2006 Boise State Broncos that famously beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. I look at this Washington team and I see a unique mixture of both. There are upperclassmen leaders such as Kevin King and Dante Pettis to go along with young playmakers like Jake Browning, Myles Gaskin, and Taylor Rapp. The first step to beating a juggernaut is believing you can- and this Husky team does.

As for going about actually doing it, it starts with turnovers. The Huskies lead the nation in takeaways, which I’m sure you’ve heard, with 33. They cannot win if they do not force multiple turnovers. Jalen Hurts is a true freshman who has been turnover-prone when faced with good defenses, particularly LSU and Auburn.

Here, on the third play of the game at a raucous Tiger Stadium, Hurts is pressured on a rollout and overthrows his intended target, getting intercepted by Jamal Adams. Adams, an instinctive safety, runs Ardarius Stewart’s route for him, and takes advantage of Hurts’ errant throw. Hurts, despite being a mobile quarterback adept at advancing the football with his legs, has had trouble being accurate on the run with his arm.

Luckily, Washington has their own instinctive safety, Budda Baker. He beats the receiver to the spot here against Washington State, and uses his excellent ball skills to make a play on the ball. This will have to happen tomorrow in order for Washington to win.

The line of scrimmage is key to beating any team, but it is especially true against the Alabama attack, which is famous for wearing teams down over time. If you’re looking for a key player on the Washington defense to be a difference-maker that isn’t perhaps the best-known, look for Elijah Qualls, an All-Pac 12 Defensive Tackle, to be that player. This dude is a beast, and is particularly noteworthy as a space-eater.

Here against Oregon, he stands up the guard assigned to block him, and does not allow future NFL running back Royce Freeman to get past him. Qualls will be matched up against Center Bradley Bozeman and Right Guard Korren Kirven all afternoon tomorrow, and him winning his matchup will be key to stopping the Tide’s three-headed rushing attack, particularly when Damien Harris is the man running the ball, as he is adept at breaking tackles and gaining extra yardage in between the tackles.

It is my belief that when you are the underdog, it is incumbent upon you to punch the opposing defense squarely in the mouth. If Washington just runs the ball into the line and gets 3-and-outs, they will lose and lose badly. The unescapable truth of the matter is that Washington’s primary means of moving the ball will be through the air. Jake Browning must make sound throws under pressure.

Here, Browning scrambles to avoid pressure and fires a dart to Dante Pettis for a TD. This is how he will be expected to make plays. Alabama has struggled against quarterbacks who are mobile enough to extend plays and keep their eyes downfield, such as Chad Kelly of Ole Miss, who threw for over 400 yards in September. This is paramount.

If there is an achilles heel to this Alabama behemoth, it is their secondary, which lost Eddie Jackson to a broken leg in October. Luckily, Washington is uniquely positioned to exploit this weakness, with perhaps the finest set of junior receivers in the country in John Ross and Dante Pettis.

Here, John Ross makes Adoree Jackson, maybe the best corner in the country, look like a Junior Varsity player. This will help, obviously.

Alabama does not allow you to grind them down with long drives. They allowed zero touchdowns in the month of November (!!!). But, they are vulnerable to big plays. Washington has home run hitters in Ross, Pettis, and backs Myles Gaskin and Chico McClatcher. Tomorrow in Atlanta, home of the true home run king in Hank Aaron, expect the Huskies to swing for the fences. Washington-38, Alabama-34.

Enjoy the playoffs and Happy New Year!